On one side of the equation, the Lakers only seem to play at their best in desperate situations — even against inferior foes. Their opponents are the Magic, a team that habitually plays best against the best.

Also, the Lakers have been there and almost-done-that, while the Magic could conceivably be happy just to still be playing.

Why the Lakers should win

Pau Gasol's's tricky spins, face-up moves, and mid-range jumpers will get Dwight Howard in early and constant foul trouble. In addition, Gasol will draw Howard away from the lane and thereby open up driving lanes for his teammates. The combination of Gasol's long arms, Andrew Bynum's bulk and athleticism, and the Lakers' coordinated anti-pivot defense will give Howard trouble when the Magic have possession.

Because Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu can both score from the perimeter, it will be counterproductive for the Lakers to have Gasol and Bynum on the floor at the same time — except when Orlando plays Marcin Gortat beside Howard. But, with Lamar Odom at the power forward slot, L.A. has a defender who's totally comfortable playing defense so far away from the hoop. Conversely, Odom should be an extremely tough cover for either Lewis or Turkoglu.

Even if he's guarding Lewis, Trevor Ariza will acquit himself with distinction. Actually, Ariza's having to defend Lewis will be a picnic compared to his having to battle against the stronger, more versatile scoring skills of Carmelo Anthony.

Kobe will quickly slay Courtney Lee, and at least mortally wound Mickael Pietrus. And reference Games 5 and 6 of the Denver series to see how many easy scores resulted from Kobe's being doubled. Plus Kobe is on a mission to both avenge last year's humiliating defeat by the Celtics, and also to prove that he can win a ring without Shaq's considerable assistance.

Derek Fisher is too disciplined to be more than moderately annoyed by Rafer Alston's pestiferous, but ultimately sub-par defense. At the same time, Alston's unwise decisions with the ball and erratic shooting favor the Lakers.

The Lakers' bench is the superior one: Both Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown will run rings around Anthony Johnson. Luke Walton earned his spurs in Game 6 with some accurate shot-making and his usual solid passwork. Assuming that he starts the game on the bench, Andrew Bynum will have his way with Gortat.

Overall, the Lakers are quicker and much more athletic — which enables their defense to cover more ground in the paint and to close down more passing lanes.

As opposed to Orlando's almost exclusive use of high screen/rolls and dumping the ball into Howard, L.A.'s offense is much more varied and therefore more difficult to contain.

With the notable exception of Howard, the Magic are not nearly as physical as were the Nuggets.

Over the years, virtually all of Phil Jackson's championship teams had the same modus operandi: Take two, three or sometimes four games to learn how the opponents play — their rhythms, strategies and use of personnel — before going for the kill. His game-to-game in-series adjustments lay at the heart of P.J.'s particular genius.

As evidenced in their close-out games against both Houston and Denver, the Lakers are capable of playing championship-caliber basketball.

Moreover, all of L.A.'s core players are veterans of championship series, and the Denver series appears to have sharpened their focus. Meanwhile, all of Orlando's are strangers in a paradise where newcomers are apt to lose their way.

Too many of the Magicians are mistake-prone — Alston, Pietrus and Turkoglu — and Orlando isn't nearly as good a ball club as last season's championship Celtics were.

The Lakers should win in 5.

Why the Magic could win

The Lakers could easily be overconfident and underestimate the Magic's grit and never-say-die attitude.

Howard's size, strength, skills and determination could reduce Bynum to tears, and also power through Gasol's long-armed but lightweight defense. That's why the Magic could very well dominate their offensive glass and create dozens of extra possessions.

Howard also has the heft to push Gasol off of his favorite receiving position on the left box. Howard likewise has the speed to beat his opposite numbers downcourt in early-offense sequences, thereby claiming the valuable real estate in the shadow of the basket before the Lakers can set up their defense.

Odom consumes too much candy to be able to maintain his concentration for every game — and, if Lewis can be somewhat erratic, Hedo Turkoglu is as steady and as relentless as a dentist's drill.

The Lakers' biggest defensive weakness is their coverage of high screen/rolls, which happens to be the motor of Orlando's offensive schemes.

Alston is too quick for Fisher to cover at one end and to escape from at the other. Anthony Johnson is too strong for either Farmar or Brown to handle.

Courtney Lee's quickness and veteran-like poise, coupled with Pietrus' active defense will force Kobe into taking extremely difficult shots — which, or course, he's quite capable of knocking down. Having to cope with LeBron's monstrous skills is a perfect warmup for Pietrus.

The Lakers also are deficient in closing out perimeter shooters — which constitutes a huge advantage for both Turkoglu and Lewis, the Magic's rapid-load-and-fire, long-range bombers. Remember how many uncontested treys J.R. Smith, Chauncey Billups and Linas Kleiza were able to hoist?

Moreover, in their accustomed defense of early-offense sequences, the Lakers are frequently deficient in the tagging of outside shooters. This could be fatal against the Magic.

The Magic could also take full advantage of the inevitable scoring lapses that have periodically plagued the Lakers — especially when their second unit is on the floor. And Orlando can score lots of points in a hurry.

By maintaining their poise; playing with a perpetual sense of emergency; getting high-flying, freight-train stopping performances from Howard; avoiding unforced turnovers; dominating both boards; and above all by not settling for hastily taken 3-pointers, the Magic could definitely win the very last game of the season.

The Magic could win in 7.