Bayern – Dortmund preview, the battle of field hospitals

It doesn’t get better than FC Bayern and Borussia Dortmund facing each other. They are the best in Europe. However, it is two teams with a number of important injuries that will fight for three points on Saturday.

Dortmund, overstretched

When they started the year by beating us in the Supercup, it looked like Dortmund were as dangerous, if not more, than when we beat them in the Champions League final.

The basics of their game plan haven’t changed. Energetic pressing without the ball and 110% efforts to strike quickly with the ball were strengthened with the additions of attacking midfielders Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Henrikh Mkhitaryan.

Aubameyang is, admittedly, a guy I’d love to have on my team. Everybody made a big deal of his blistering space but there is much more to him than pure speed. What makes him a top winger is his timing. The timing of his runs when going past the defence to take a pass allows him to be totally free to challenge the keeper with a killer instinct to score. Dizzying.

Mkhitaryan is a different package as a playmaker. The Armenian is an amazing passer who threads the needle in the area and who is super dangerous on one-on-one situations, whether he faces a defender or the keeper. He knows how to get alone in the area, in a position to score, or how to attract everyone to make a teammate free. He doesn’t mind taking a long shot either.

Brought on as a substitute, midfielder Jonas Hoffman is another promising young man who could turn into a major attacking threat with time.

The new kids on the block complement well with Marco Reus, the explosive winger who is on a roll since the beginning of the season.

That’s the good stuff. Dortmund, however, is a different proposition this season. It is an overstretched squad that is even more shallow than last year.

Jürgen Klopp has a great first 11, but nothing else. His back line is in a terrible state with injuries to Mats Hummels, Neven Subotic and Marcel Schmelzer. The transfer of central defender Felipe Santana to Schalke looks like a bonehead decision today and I am not sure that recent replacement Manuel Friedrich is up to the task. He may only be a makeshift solution.

The same goes for the midfield. Our rivals have workhorses in Sven Bender and Nuri Sahin, but the composure of Ilkay Gündogan is sorely missed.

The bees are severely weakened… and they have already been shakier in the Champions League. We have seen a different, lesser team against a rejuvenated Arsenal and a threatening Napoli. Dortmund has missed passes when attacking and played hesitantly in defence, especially in their own end. Mkhitaryan sometimes lacked confidence, leading him to misses on great scoring opportunities.

Many teams have figured out that leaving them with the ball is a great way to make them uncomfortable on the pitch. Deprived of their “block, intercept and burst forward” tactics, they sometimes get caught forward and make dubious passes, exposing them to counterattacks. Arsenal’s serious brand of creative football has shown us the way to test Klopp’s men and even has lead goalkeeper Roman Weidenfeller to make rare mistakes.

Games against Braunschweig and Hannover have also showed that Dortmund need a little luck or the odd penalty to go forward.

The key point? Klopp will have a makeshift back four on the pitch. Even if Bayern’s attack misses several stars, I’m not sure it can hold up against a determined bunch of Bavarians.

Possible lineup

Bayern, deep and wide

We wanted to brag about having an healthier team, but the injury bug has sunk its teeth into the squad again in the last couple of weeks. With Bastian Schweinsteiger sidelined until January and Franck Ribéry’s broken rib, the attacking midfield has lost two leaders.

The good news is that Pep Guardiola still has enough depth to start guys who can play a great game. Mario Götze is the first name I have in mind. He will have to play on either the left or right flank despite the hostility of the crowd that will surely display a few Judas banners and jerseys. It’s time for him to have his first solid start, after having performed well as a substitute.

Without Thiago and Shaqiri, Pep should field Müller, Kroos and perhaps Robben with Mario Mandzukic in front of them.

Who should handle the defensive midfield? Philipp Lahm was a good option against the likes of Freiburg, but since we are facing a top team, it is mandatory to have him at right-back while Javi Martinez should be the DM.

Due to the specific complexion of the starting 11 both coaches can put on the pitch, I am convinced that two areas will be important to watch.

First, FCB makes heavier use of its full-backs than last year when going forward, thanks to the natural attacking skills of David Alaba, Lahm and Rafinha. They can increase pressure on a weakened Dortmund defence and force it to concede scoring chances and shots.

Secondly… that heavy use of full-backs could easily backfire. Aubameyang, Reus and Mkhitaryan are obviously aware that maintaining a high line could open up space for their counters. A very important tactical point to keep in mind.

The key to a win? If Klopp still deserves being celebrated as a tactician, he should ask his guys to play a compact defence to make up for their lesser skills. Opening the lid thus requires width.

This means that Bayern will need Toni Kroos’ generalship more than ever. He should pull the strings in the middle, looking to pass the ball to Thomas Müller, who has to cover 12 or 13 kilometers with unpredictable runs. This should open space either for himself or whoever will be playing near him on the wings.

The spin

Both teams still are evenly matched but with the above comments in mind, I think that FCB can win this by one goal.

Possible lineup