Mainz Bayern preview, to clinch the title and move on

Clinching the title early is FC Bayern’s mission when visiting FSV Mainz 05 on Saturday. If FCB wins and Borussia Dortmund and Schalke fail to earn three points, the Bundesliga is in the defending champions’ back pocket. Securing it now is important.

Mainz, still punching above their weight

Mainz is far from the most expensive side in the Bundesliga, but it is a well-coached team under the watch of Thomas Tuchel, one of my favourites. In fact, I’d like this guy to be the next Bayern coach after Pep Guardiola.

Mainz are fifth in the league, a credible contender for Europa League. In the summer, they lost striker Adam Szalai and central defender Jan Kirchhoff, without suffering too much.

Coming from a city of style, they are tactically flexible, although 4-2-3-1 is the most frequent option. Shinji Okazaki, an acquisition from Stuttgart, features as striker, along with right winger Nicolai Müller and left winger Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting as the main threats. Previous attempts to tinker with a super-offensive 4-3-3 and a strange defensive formation have not worked.

Mainz doesn’t retain the ball and it banks on decent organization at the back. They look for a swift attacking opportunity when recovering, counting on the long pass and the speed of their attackers, overloading the middle up front to set up a scoring chance. As a result, they often get caught offside and they can be the victim of a counter if the timing is wrong, but that comes with the territory.

With that system, you have to watch three players.

Okazaki has a great acceleration and a sometimes-spectacular finish. Müller loves to down the right wing, put the ball ahead of him and get ready for an accurate short-range shot. Choupo-Moting, who wasn’t consistent in the last year, is a run-and-gun guy who has done well recently.

None of their players is a superstar, but the collective work rate is high. Playmaker Niki Zimling also has a big shot.

Mainz is very disciplined, another sign that they are well coached. But they are the worst in the league on set pieces. If you can stop their quick attacks, you can deprive them of their oxygen.

Possible lineup

Bayern, putting it away

Don’t get fool by last week’s declaration by Bastian Schweinsteiger. Clinching the Bundesliga title on Saturday, or next week, does count. Nothing is like putting this one to bed early, so the team can focus on defending the Champions League and the Pokal.

By ensuring that the salad plate stays in Munich before the end of March, Pep Guardiola can implement a full rotation system, to field a B-team in the Bundesliga and the A-team in other competitions. It’s important, but nobody will acknowledge the presence of this elephant in the room.

In order to win big, I expect Pep to put his best players on the pitch on Saturday. Thiago can’t play in this one, dealing with a slight injury. Mario Götze could feature as playmaker, unless Pep goes for Müller. Bastian Schweinsteiger has been bossing the midfield again. Philipp Lahm has proved that he can still play at right-back, making him an option if Pep wants to rest Rafinha and add defensive solidity.

Franck Ribéry needs another start to get into his usual rhythm before the final stages of the season.

We cannot say that the team has played impressively in the last couple of weeks, but they didn’t need to peak in early March. What counts is rising up to the challenges in April and May.

Yet, I am looking for a total domination against Mainz. They will sit back and look for the counterattacking opportunity. This is why a Schweinsteiger-Kroos combination in central midfield would be welcome, to control the pace of this game, pin the hosts in their half and prevent slip-ups.

Bayern should win this by two or three goals.

Possible lineup

•     Barney Ronay