Bayern – CSKA Moskva preview, the intolerance test
FC Bayern will play in a rough environment on Wednesday, going to Moscow to face CSKA in a stadium where racist chants are expected. Will that throw them off their game?
NOTE: it will be an early kickoff at 18:00 CET. For whatever reason, our mobile calendar has refused to update itself in the last few weeks when we corrected the time.
CSKA, still not a superpower
Injuries: none
We won’t reinvent the wheel here. We have detailed CSKA’s strengths and weaknesses in our preview of the first match against them. Repeating ourselves would be a bit boring.
However, let’s note a couple of things.
First, striker Seydou Doumbia is back in the lineup, which will make their attack more threatening. He has a high level of composure in the box and a wicked shot, in addition to delivering good headers. He scored a few eye-opening goals in the current campaign.
Second, their defensive weakness has been exposed by us and by Manchester City in the Champions League. It will be interesting to see how we can deploy our own attack in this game to take advantage of their lack of pace and positioning in the area.
Possible lineup
CSKA Moskva (4-2-3-1)
Akinfeev
Fernandes, Berezutskiy, Ignashevich, Shchennikov
Wernbloom, Elm
Tosic, Honda, Milanov
Doumbia
Bayern, a risky situation
Injuries: Mandzukic, Ribéry, Pizarro, Shaqiri, Schweinsteiger, Badstuber
This game is an unusually risky one, for multiple reasons.
First, let’s remember that our last important match in Russia didn’t go well when facing Zenit St. Petersburg in UEFA Cup. It was a terrible loss. The FCB record in Eastern Europe isn’t good and the loss against BATE Borisov has showed it in the last Champions League campaign. Therefore, the boys will be looking for composure despite being on the kind of land where they normally underperform.
They won’t find help in the crowd. CSKA fans have been known for racist chants, which their team has been punished for. Yet, UEFA has been criticized for not going far enough and many are expecting the likes of David Alaba, Jérôme Boateng and Dante to be targeted for their skin colour.
We have discussed the issue in the Rekordmeister Podcast: should Bayern walk off the pitch of this happens? A tricky question. In principle, yes. Practically, no.
The first reason is that it shouldn’t be a team’s responsibility to risk a loss. It should be UEFA’s responsibility to fight racism by taking a tough stand. But we know how footballing authorities handle rule changes. They rarely have the courage to react quickly and decisively in order to rid the sport of its most annoying problems.
The second reason is purely tactical, in the standings. Bayern has 12 points while Manchester City has 9. The first place in the group is not guaranteed and coughing up three points at this stage is very risky. We have the last game against Money City in December. Finishing second and meeting a major rival early in the knockout round is not the kind of risk that I want my team to take.
The right answer to racist chants is pressuring UEFA and FIFA to do their jobs, not doing it for them.
Other than that, serial injuries are still plaguing the reds. Mario Mandzukic injured his calf during the international break. Julian Green will be taking his place in the squad but I would be very surprised if he started the game.
Bayern still has to deal with other major injuries, not having Franck Ribéry, Bastian Schweinsteiger, Claudio Pizarro, Xherdan Shaqiri and Holger Badstuber. We could expect a mix of Mario Götze on the right wing, Philipp Lahm in the attacking midfield and Thomas Müller as false nine. Unless Pep Guardiola wants to try Götze in that last position, as he showed scoring instinct against Dortmund.
The squad will be a bit stretched but let’s be fair and say that CSKA is not as dangerous as Dortmund.
The team can win this and take a major step towards first place in group D if it prevents playmaker Honda from linking successfully with Doumbia in the attack. I am looking forward to a patient brand of football, so that we don’t reproduce the poor performances of the last few years in Eastern Europe.
I predict a win, but not by a big margin.
Possible lineup
FC Bayern (4-1-4-1)
Neuer
Rafinha, Boateng, Dante, Alaba
Javi
Götze, Lahm, Kroos, Robben
Müller