It’s a new campaign but the same old Croatia, which is bad news for England. The Croats have one of the most settled squads in Europe and always seem to use more or less the same team. They will be just as dangerous as in Euro 2008 qualifying, and they’ve got high technical standards and great unity of spirit. Go through their players one by one: they are strong. At least everybody appreciates that now, and there will be no underestimating of Slaven Bilic and his men. Fabio Capello has a big task on his hands.

Only the winners of the nine European groups are guaranteed to go to the World Cup, with the eight strongest runners-up competing for four remaining places. I don’t think Ukraine are good enough to threaten England’s chances of finishing in the top two but Capello will want to avoid the perils of the playoffs by coming first. Croatia showed last time that they don’t drop many points against the average teams so getting the better of them head-to-head is crucial. There can be no repeat for England of the disaster that occurred the last time they played in Zagreb.

Steven Gerrard, out with a groin injury, will be missed but Croatia are without Niko Kranjcar, who is recuperating from ankle surgery, and that is serious for them. The upside of Gerrard’s absence is that Capello will be spared that old headache that for England managers never seems to go away: how to accommodate Gerrard and Frank Lampard in the same midfield.

The loss of Kranjcar will give Bilic a headache because the player was central to the change of formation Bilic made at Euro 2008 and might have been planning to persist with. Bilic altered his system from 4-4-2 to 4-5-1 at the championships, bringing Kranjcar from his former left-sided position into the middle to operate as a No 10, and it worked, with Croatia unfortunate not to progress past the quarter-finals, where they conceded a goal to Turkey in the final minute of extra-time before losing on penalties.

Bilic must decide whether to stick with 4-5-1 and move Luka Modric or, more likely, Schalke’s Ivan Rakitic into the No 10 position, but that would involve reshuffling his midfield and defence. He may prefer to return to the 4-4-2 used in qualifying for Euro 2008. If so, two of my own players would comprise the forward line John Terry and company would face.

Ivica Olic was already Hamburg’s main striker when I arrived as manager in May and one of my summer signings was Mladen Petric, from Borussia Dortmund. They are a good combination, as England discovered in the 3-2 defeat at Wembley. Olic scored Croatia’s second goal and Petric, after coming off the bench to join him, got the winner. Petric has not played many minutes for us yet because another forward, Jose Paolo Guerrero, has been doing so well, but he has the talent to become an important member of our side. He’s a very technical footballer, left-footed, tall, versatile and good with his head. He likes to drop off but he’s not quite a No 10, more a second striker, much like Robbie Keane. He and Olic are great friends, although the Croats are so close I’ve noticed that they all seem to be pals with each other. Ask Olic about Kranjcar and he’d say: “Boss, you should sign him, he’s my best mate.” If I mentioned Rakitic it would be: “Boss, that’s my best mate, buy him.” The players also consider Bilic a friend. It’s nice and, of course, a great source of strength for the Croatian side.

As an athlete, Olic is freakish. He runs and runs and runs. And runs. Sometimes he will tire himself out by the 70th minute and need to be replaced but you always know he will use every single ounce of energy he possesses out on the pitch. He’s bright enough to know his strengths and his limits and that fitness is crucial to his game. After Euro 2008 I told him to rest and report back to training on July 13 but by July 4 he had come in. I said: “No, you don’t train with the squad.” So he shrugged and started training by himself, disappearing for long runs into the woods. By July 8 I said: “Okay, you can join us.” He’s a marvel-lous professional.

What makes him dangerous as a forward is how he uses all that energy. Olic plays high up the pitch and always stretches a defence by running across the line and into channels. His timing is great and he is rarely caught offside. When the opposition get the ball he is a first line of defence. He doesn’t tackle, he’s an expert at chasing a defender, putting them off balance and, just when they try to get rid of the ball, sticking out a foot to intercept it. He’s not a prolific scorer but gets a decent amount of goals; he was our top scorer last season with 14. Petric is similar. And the movement into space of Olic, whatever system Bilic plays, makes Croatia deadly on the break.

Counter-attacks will be the main threat to England in Zagreb. Although Croatia are at home they will play their normal style, which is to invite their opponents to play in their half before looking to win the ball and send a quick pass forward to Olic. England must not give Olic space and have to keep their shape better than they did against the Czech Republic, after which Capello said his players had not coped well with counter-attacks. He is considering using 4-5-1 which, if Croatia reverted to 4-4-2, would give England a spare man in midfield, but Wayne Rooney up front alone is not the answer. England’s best performance in recent times was beating Russia 3-0 last September when Emile Heskey came in to partner Michael Owen. Using Rooney and Heskey together in a 4-4-2, or Rooney and Jermain Defoe, is Capello's other option. It would be easier for him because he doesn’t have the Gerrard-Lampard problem. England have been predictable for some time and need to try new things. One might be starting with Stewart Downing while using Heskey up front in an attempt to get some real wing play and crossing into the attacks. I like the selection of Jimmy Bullard because he is something different. For me he’s not a typical English 15
England’s world ranking. Croatia, their opponents on Wednesday, are fifth in the Fifa rankings, while Andorra languish in 186th place.

Euro 2008 winners Spain are the world’s top-ranked international team player. He’s a talented footballer who I would back to play in any position in the midfield and his enthusiasm is infectious.

Leaving out Owen was controversial but I understand Capello’s reasons. He has played just one full game this season and if Capello does not feel he is fit enough to start for England, why take him? English people will always say, “Yeah, but it’s Michael Owen, he could come on as a substitute”, but I’d never choose a player on the basis he could be useful for just a few minutes. If the squad is right there should be players other than Owen capable of coming off the bench and scoring if England need a goal in Zagreb.

England should forget what happened on their last visit. With that in mind, it makes me happy that Paul Robinson is in the squad. Paul was England’s No 1 and a great goalkeeper for Tottenham before his mistake in Zagreb in October 2006. He lost confidence after that but is rebuilding his career at Blackburn. He’s a good professional and it is great to see him back.

Martin Jol was manager of Spurs from 2004-07 and now coaches Hamburg in the Bundesliga

5 min: A hilarious game of knee pinball is played out in the Andorra box. Eventually the ball breaks out towards Johnson, whose rasping shot is deflected wide. What follows is a perfect English corner, in the sense that it's hoofed witlessly over everyone's head, causing no danger whatsoever. "Re Mac's point," begins Gary Naylor, "I'm glad to see that England are not complacent about their fear of failure. Despite being already good at it, they practise whenever they get the chance."

9 min: England enjoy a lot of possession without necessarily getting anywhere. Which on the one hand isn't so great, but then on the other, they've still got the ball. Could Capello have taught these people some patience? It's hard to believe, isn't it.

10 min: Ah yes, patience. John Terry takes the initiative and attempts a Steven Gerrardesque raking 40-yard crossfield pass to Ashley Cole on the left. It's a perfect facsimile of a Gerrard ball, as it flies into the stands about ten yards over Cole's head. Patience!

22 min: Walcott has been bodychecked by Tony Lima. He stays down for a couple of minutes, but eventually gets up. There really isn't a lot to report, I'm so very sorry.

33 min: Here, I've forgotten to tell you how badly Frank Lampard is playing. I'm not sure if he's touched the ball once. Still, I'm not going to upbraid him for it, not while Paul Silton can do the job: "Can you please ask any Chelsea fans out there if it is just televised matches that Frank Lampard goes missing in, or is he not that fussy?"

45 min: There will, thankfully, only be one more minute of this dismal half.

61 min: Poor Glen Johnson: from the right-hand side of the area he hammers a low shot into the bottom left corner, threading the ball through about ten bodies but somehow missing them all. Except Joe Cole, that is, the greedy get; he's offside but tries a fancy flick to guide it on anyway, ruling the strike out. You've already got two, man! Give someone else a chance.

72 min: Nothing is going on here. Nothing. "So presumably Slaven Bilic is not currently on the phone to Iceland begging them for an escape route before Wednesday," writes Robin Hazlehurst. "Seems unlikely he will be suffering The Fear, unlike his opponents." The Croatians will sleep like babies tonight.

90 min: There are going to be seven more minutes of this. Ah hold on, the number seven Pujol is coming off for Vales. There will be two more minutes of this. Thank Christ for that.

Full time: Andorra 0-2 England. A solid workmanlike start to England's World Cup campaign, which is all that matters? Or a disgraceful performance against a bunch of part-timers, and one which does not bode well for Wednesday night in Croatia? I'll leave it up to you

 

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