Anderson Silva, vs. Chael Sonnen II.
* * * * *
For over 2 years, the fans have been dying to see this rematch. In fact,
when this fight was originally set to be in Brazil, it looked like a
fighter might be dying to see this rematch. Supposedly, the fight was
moved from Brazil to America due to a scheduling conflict with the
venue, but we all know the real truth: Dana White did not have enough
time to construct a trapdoor in the Octagon, nor the necessary
underground tunnel leading directly from Brazil back to West Linn,
Oregon, to ensure Sonnen's safety. Additionally, there was reportedly a
miscommunication problem with the security officials in Brazil, as all
of them seemed to think that their mission was to execute Chael at the
first possible chance, with extreme prejudice.
Yes, it is my firm belief that this fight was moved to avoid an
international incident. If Chael Sonnen lost to Anderson in Brazil, he
might have gotten out of there with just a few broken bones. But if he
beat Anderson Silva in Brazil, the Octagon would have been swarmed like a
piece of shrimp in a piranha tank, we would have had our first ever
postmortem-crowned Champion, and Dana White would have had to put the
belt around a headstone at a funeral. Obama would then have had to
declare war on Brazil, and thousands of U.S. soldiers would have stormed
the beautiful beaches of Rio, getting distracted by big
Brazilian-bootied babes in thongs, while being armbarred by locals.
Thankfully for all of us, this is not the case, and now all around the
world can safely enjoy the rematch without the threat of any
war-inducing deaths on the card. (Unless Le/Cote goes wrong... tensions
have never been higher in war-hungry Canada, and nuclear power Vietnam
has been unstable since its ruler Kim Jong Il recently passed away. But
let's all just pray for the best on that one.)
So let's break it down, shall we?
Anderson Silva
Advantages:
- Flawless UFC record
- Owns a Michael Jackson outfit
- Knows how to do a triangle
- Arsenal of pink shirts
- Has punched and kicked some guys
Chael P. Sonnen
Advantages:
- Dominant first performance
- Not currently in jail that I know of
- Body is composed of 87% testosterone
- Knows that Anderson secretly speaks english
- Doesn't afraid of Steven Seagull
Striking
When you think of Anderson Silva on the feet, you think of Neo from The
Matrix, Muhammad Ali with kicks, or Michael Jackson moonwalking inside a
Burger King. As amazing, awe-inspiring, and deserved as those
comparisons are, there is a wrench in the near-flawless record of
Anderson's striking in the UFC: the fact that Chael Sonnen, somehow,
outstruck him. On the feet. That's right, if Anderson is Bruce Lee, then
Chael Sonnen is like a racist Chuck Norris, except if Chuck Norris were
somehow better than Bruce Lee. Maybe.
Lots of conclusions can be drawn from this, but rather than jump to any
one of them too quickly, I prefer to simply list the biggest
possibilities as I see them.
Possibility #1 - Anderson's rib injury prevented him from performing at his best.
If this is the case, then Chael is in for a rude awakening, because if a
hurt Anderson could submit him, then a healthy Anderson should be able
to add Chael's soul to the collection.
Possibility #2 - The threat of the takedowns is why Chael outstruck Anderson.
If this is the simple truth, then it's very possible we might just see a
repeat performance. Could just be a nightmare style matchup for
Anderson.
Possibility #3 - Chael is simply a better striker, technically, than Anderson.
This one may sound absurd at first, but there is one interesting glint
to it, when you consider this strange fact: in 39 professional fights,
Chael Sonnen has never been dominated on the feet, by anyone. He
secretly outstrikes just about all of his opponents, including Anderson
Silva, with Bisping being a strange exception. And rumor has it that
performance in general was the result of a bad weight cut, where Chael
still snagged the decision anyway.
In any case, whatever the reason, from a striking standpoint the first
fight was an entirely one-sided affair. Chael set the record for the
most number of strikes landed in a fight (1,294, not counting foot
stomps, or those weird knee-to-the-thigh-up-against-the-cage things
people do sometimes).
The strangest thing about this, is that after the fight, despite having
647 strikes landed directly on his face, somehow Anderson seemed to
barely have a mark on him.
On the flipside, despite overwhelmingly outstriking Anderson both on the
feet and on the ground, Chael was the more visibly busted up of the two
at the end.

I believe it's a case of Chael's GnP style being more "busy" than
"effective", which is to say it scores points, and does some damage, but
it's not a Munoz/Condit/Belcher level beatdown when he's on top.
Chael's GnP is more about staying busy to maintain top position, avoid a
ref standup, and control his opponent. For this reason, I do not see a
TKO finish for Chael as a big possibility. Anderson is too durable, and
Chael, while he look a bit improved in the Stann fight, is still just
not a heavy hitter on the ground. On the flipside, Anderson is very
capable of catching Sonnen with a strike standing, kicks punches or
knees, that would wobble Chael enough or knock him down to where Andy
could finish him, as he has done to so many before. No easy task though,
as Chael has proven durable himself - neither man has ever been knocked
out in MMA.
Wrestling
While Chael was wrong in his assessment that Brazil does not have soap (good role model for the kids, that Chael) there
is
one thing that Brazil definitely does not have: a wrestling program
worth a shit. Anderson's striking is awe-inspiring, and his blackbelt is
legit, but his wrestling pedigree is somewhere around mine, and he
thinks that "shooting a double" is some type of erectile dysfunction.
In their first encounter, Chael Sonnen absolutely dominated the
wrestling aspect, landing a near-record 493 takedowns. That number is
second only to GSP/Hardy, with 494. (2nd-place Sonnen strikes again).
If this fight comes down to wrestling and control, there is no doubt
that Sonnen will emerge the victor in a decision. Of course, it's called
MMA for a reason...
Jiu-Jitsu
Or as Chael Sonnen calls it, "Gay". On the surface, we should give this
one to Anderson easily, because he's got a blackbelt from the Nogueira
brothers, meanwhile Sonnen can't even go down on his girlfriend without
getting caught in a triangle.
However... maybe, just maybe, it's not that simple. Hear me out... We
all saw that arm triangle finish Sonnen landed on Brian Stann, right?
(Happy Independence Day btw. Way to go Sonnen, you just choked out
America. Some patriot you are.) And we all remember the time Sonnen
famously said that "BJJ is gay". After the submission losses though, and
then the Stann fight, many fans assumed that Sonnen had finally started
to take submissions seriously, and train them offensively as well.
Well, here's a fact: Did you know that Sonnen has been submitting people
for over 10 years? And not just the typical wrestler-basic submissions,
RNCs and guillotines etc. - for example, did you know that Sonnen won a
fight by D'arce choke, over 5 years ago?
(Above: Chael P. Sonnen, doing gay shit.)
Don't let the shit-talking fool you, Chael has been studying submission
grappling for a long time. In fact, his first ever finish in an MMA
fight came via choke, in 2002. He has been submitting people for a
decade. Why does this matter? In the first fight with Anderson, Chael
looked for an arm triangle several times. One attempt was particularly
threatening, except that the cage was in the way on the side that Chael
would have needed to move into to finish it. Something pointed out at
the time by the excellent commentary of the great Joe Rogan (congrats on
the blackbelt! No joke here... that is just awesome.)
In any Sonnen fight against a blackbelt, a loss by triangle is a real
possibility. That's just the way it is. Sonnen has shown a clear
deficiency in the defense of this move. He's enlisted the help of BJJ
phenom Vinicius Magalhaes, who got his name by being a Greek Adonis body
double. However, a trainer's skills do not always pass to the student,
and certainly not always within a few months. Still, I'm sure Vinny
helped.
Personally, I think one of Chael's biggest problems on the ground is
that he does not try to pass the guard enough. He is often too content
to hang out inside the guard, giving some GnP but leaving himself open
to submission attempts from elite BJJers. Not a good trade in my
opinion. If he would at least pass to half-guard, I think he would have a
lot more success in staying out of triangles.
Bottom line: If there is a submission in this fight, history tells us
that it will be probably be Sonnen once again screaming "TAAAAAPPP!!!"
from inside the Spider's web. However, if this does end up as a repeat
performance, with Anderson put on his back over and over once again,
look for the arm triangle from Sonnen as a real possibility. He will be
looking for it.
Mental Aspect
Much has been made of the mindgames leading up to this fight.
Chael has said horrible things about Anderson's championship belt, his
legacy, his country, his wife, and even his pet dog Snowflake.
"It no true Snowflake! ... *sniff* it no true. I gonna break Shael's teeth 4 u"
Honestly though, and I hate to burst the bubble of a lot of the fans
here, but I don't think this will affect the fight at all. All of the
smack-talk, the bad feelings, and the posturing, while it makes for
great TV and may even be "real" in the sense that Sonnen really is a
nationalist and Anderson really hates Sonnen, I don't think this will
matter to their performances come fight night. Both of these men are
particularly strong-willed veterans, and when it comes to implementing
their gameplans and doing their best, I don't see either of them being
shook by pre-fight hype. That's rookie shit.
One thing that does concern me though, is the layoff. While Sonnen
fought Bisping earlier this year, I'm surprised that very little to
nothing is being made of the fact that Anderson has not competed in just
about a full year. It was August of 2011 when he defeated Okami, and
here we are in July 2012. This, combined with some injuries dealt with
during that time, and the fact that he is 37... you never know. In any
case, this physical stuff is probably more relevant than any mindgames.
(Above: Chael & Anderson argue about steak preparation, on the set of The Jerry Springer Show.)
The Prediction
Okay, I've gotten a lot of crap for sometimes not making a prediction in
my prediction threads. But I'm just being honest! If I don't have a
strong pull one way or the other, I prefer to just break the fight down
and let the chips fall where they may.
However... I'd be lying if I didn't admit that I have a strong feeling
on this one. Ever since the rematch was confirmed, I've had a specific
outcome in mind. So here it is.
I think that Sonnen has the best style to thwart Anderson, but I also
believe it had much to do with the element of surprise, now gone. I
think his style, and the aggressive, no-bullshit way in which he
implements it, caught Anderson off-guard in the first match. But now
that they've spent 23 minutes in combat with each other, I think that
Anderson has his smell now, like the way a hunter gets to know a vicious
prey with a near-fatal encounter. I think Sonnen is going to come with
the same old gameplan and set of tools, while Anderson will have spent
the better part of the last 2 years preparing for it. As well as
learning how to knock people out with his big toe, apparently. I mean,
seriously. He knocked out Vitor Belfort with his fucking toe. The
fuck?!?
Put simply, I think Anderson is going to go in there with a focused mind, laser-guided strikes, and finish Chael Sonnen early.
(Where is your real estate license now, playboy?")
There, happy? I made a definitive prediction. Sorry, Sonnen fans. If it
makes you feel better, I'm only a moderator, which means I am just some
fat guy in his mother's basement. Sonnen might very well win the fight,
what the fuck do I know?
Besides, who cares who wins this fight anyway? The REAL main event will
have already been over by then, and we will likely all still be reeling
in the wake of the MMA-Overload Epicness that is
Forrest/Tito 3.
(Or is this 4? Wait, 5 you say? Hmm... No, you're just fucking with me,
I'm pretty sure this is 3. Isn't it? Alright hang on, let me check
wikipedia...)
(Above: Anderson Silva attempts a takedown.)[uredio madmax17 - 05. srpnja 2012. u 01:27]