Print

Who is the better striker between Robert Lewandowski and Mario Mandzukic? Both have their strengths and Pep Guardiola could use them in different situations, as shown in our statistical comparison.

It was easily the worst kept secret in Germany that Polish striker Robert Lewandowski would join Bayern Munich in the summer on a free transfer. There’s no question that Lewandowski is a world-class talent, and has the potential to become one of the best strikers in the world.

Lewandowski is joining a team that is stacked to the gills with attacking talent, and Pep Guardiola is a coach who famously abandoned the use of a striker and opted for a false 9 in Lionel Messi.

Guardiola has done a lot of experimenting since becoming the head coach of Bayern and has opted to bench Mandzukic and using Thomas Müller or Mario Götze as a center-forward. In games where Mandzukic wasn’t on the bench, he’s sometimes the first player subbed off as the team reverts to a strikerless formation.

Given that strikers are not utilized in every game for Guardiola, he’s going to have a challenge at keeping both Mandzukic and Lewandowski satisfied with playing time.

So who’s more likely to fit into Guardiola’s system according to the statistics and facts?

What Guardiola wants in a striker

Contrary to popular belief, Guardiola is not a manager who hates strikers and looks for any excuse to shoehorn an attacking midfielder into the center-forward position. Guardiola worked with a number of quality strikers and had great success on the pitch with them. The only reason Samuel Eto’o and Zlatan Ibrahimovic were forced out of Barcelona were because of personality clashes with the Catalan coach.

So what sort of attributes does Guardiola look for in a striker?

The Catalan coach likes strikers who can drop back into the midfield and help in buildup play and float between the midfield and the attack. Guardiola’s system demands that his strikers be mobile be able to create for themselves, take part in the pressing game, and be good with the ball on their feet.

Obviously Mandzukic is a striker who fits this bill for the most part. His numbers show that he isn’t exactly struggling in the new system. But statistically, how does he stack up to Robert Lewandowski?

Attacking statistics

Because Heynckes’s system is different in certain aspects to Guardiola’s, it we can somewhat discount the statistics Mandzukic produced last season. (Even though they were very impressive.) Because he’s actually spent time under Guardiola, we are able to see how he fits into the picture so far.

These statistics paint a pretty decent picture of what kind of players we are dealing with, as statistics often do. Lewandowski is superior to Mandzukic in the Bundesliga so far in goals (though he has an extra appearance, so that’s a wash) shot accuracy, total chances created, pass accuracy, and the length of his passes. The only area where Mandzukic really has an edge over Lewandowski is in aerial duels.

Lewandowski is overall better with the ball at his feet and has created a total of eight more chances than Mandzukic. Lewandowski is a player who is good at through balls and key passes as well as excellent finishing. Lewandowski also seems to spend a bit more time dropping back into the midfield in order to create these chances. This suggests he’s more mobile than the Croatian striker.

That’s not to say Mandzukic is a weaker player. Aside from chances created, the stats that Lewandowski puts up offensively are only marginally better than Mandzukic’s.

Defensive output

Of course, the beautiful game is not just about attack, even for strikers. A major aspect of Mandzukic’s game is that he’s known for not only adding to the attack, but also works hard in defense.

So how do the two compare in defense?

Mandzukic’s defensive output is more impressive than Lewandowski’s in every category. Aside from interceptions, where they are level. The statistics don’t lie. Mario Mandzukic lives up to his reputation as a “defensive striker”. He is more likely to track back and help in the defense or press opposing midfields to retain possession of the ball (like he did against Juventus.)

These are attributes that Guardiola is going to have to take into consideration when he’s selecting his team sheet.

What does it all mean?

All in all, while each striker has their strengths, they remain close statistically and it’s hard to pin down how they will be played next year. It seems likely that Lewandowski will share the bulk of the playing time. He’s more mobile, better shot accuracy, and he creates more chances. But if Guardiola wants to suffocate opposing midfields, he might be better off going with the Croatian.

Either way, next season Bayern will have one of if not the deadliest pair of strikers in Europe.