Bayern Arsenal preview, the battle of complacency
Bayern Arsenal preview: second leg. Nothing should scare Bayern fans more than complacency. It is the team’s biggest enemy in the Champions League. An enemy that needs to be eliminated once and for all against Arsenal on Tuesday.
Arsenal, banged up Gunners
Injuries: Ramsey, Wilshere, Walcott. Suspended: Szcszeny
It is a different Arsenal team that Bayern will face at the Allianz Arena, with injuries and a suspension changing the complexion of the English side.
Right-back Bacary Sagna has returned, adding pace and attacking flair to the position. Goalkeeper Wojciech Szcszeny will miss this one, serving his suspension for the first leg’s red card.
Some class will be missing in central midfield, with Jack Wilshere getting hurt between the two fixtures. This adds to the already-hurt Aaron Ramsey, who seems set to remain on the sidelines for this game.
This means that Mathieu Flamini will play a key role as a defensive midfielder. This is a blessing in disguise since the Frenchman fights to the finish. Unlike the first time, Mikel Arteta will not be suspended. He should add toughness to the middle, being known for ball interceptions and tackles.
Are those the changes that Arsene Wenger had in mind? Probably not. Being down 0:2 and needing to win by three goals, his side needs to attack in order to go through. On the other hand, Arsenal can take pride in scoring a lot of goals since the first leg, despite their troubles.
How has Arsenal fared since the last time we saw them?
In the FA Cup, they won 4:1 against Everton, with brilliant passing and shooting by Mesut Özil. He was superb on the counterattack, his kind of situation. Everton showed that you can still beat Arsenal on the counter, taking Sagna by surprise to score their only goal.
The Gunners also suffered a 0:1 defeat at Stoke. They were often pinned in their half by the hosts’ attacking, conceding space in the area and on top of of the area. Santi Cazorla and Özil lacked finishing on their scoring chances.
In a 4:1 win against Sunderland, they were still vulnerable on the counter. They were better when attacking, playing one-touch football and setting up a brace for Giroud, who didn’t miss his chances. And they were handed a goal on a free header.
It remains to be seen if Arsenal can repeat last year’s win in Munich. They sure have a better team than a year ago, but you could argue that so does Bayern…
Possible lineup
Arsenal FC (4-2-3-1)
Fabianski
Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Gibbs
Arteta, Flamini
Oxlade-Chamberlain, Özil, Cazorla
Giroud
Bayern, not a good time to fall asleep
Injuries: none
This weekend, I had the opportunity of answering a number of questions as a guest on an Arsenal podcast. The guys asked me if I felt that Arsenal had a chance to win this. Given our recent record against English teams at home, there is still a risk of that happening.
Remember that Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester City all came to Munich to beat Bayern. The last two losses took place in 2013 and both were due to one reason: complacency. It may be the most dangerous threat to Bayern’s Champions League campaign. It is easy for the best team in Europe to go grab a lead in the first leg and think “all we have to do is to defend for 90 minutes”. Yet, that’s not the right way to approach it. Arsenal has a good attack and two goals can be scored in only a few minutes if you don’t play with energy.
Moreoever, Bayern isn’t ready yet to enter its “full rotation” mode. That’s when the Bundesliga title is in the back pocket. It opens the door to fielding a “B team” domestically and a fresh “A team” in the Champions League.
If anybody has a chance to knock Bayern out of the CL, it is Arsenal on Tuesday. It will be more complicated when Pep Guardiola has the luxury of focusing on Europe and on the Pokal.
That doesn’t mean Bayern will put together an overly tired or vulnerable squad. The team has been injury-free for more than a week, save for the recovering Holger Badstuber.
We can expect to have both Franck Ribéry and Arjen Robben on the wings. Bastian Schweinsteiger has been rested last weekend. Javi, Lahm, Mandzukic and Thiago have all played only a part of the game, saving some energy for the Champions League.
Who should Pep put at right-back and in defensive midfield? If playing minutes provide the usual clue, you should notice that Rafinha played a full game against Wolfsburg, which has not been the case for Lahm and Javi. This could be a case for Lahm at right-back and Javi in defensive midfield. Unless, of course, the Spanish guy ends up playing central defence, where he has done well recently, replacing Boateng who had a full game.
In any case, I think that Bayern should look forward to more of the kind of possession and playmaking that allowed it to dominate in the first leg’s second half. That’s pinning Arsenal in their area and looking for throughballs towards the middle and the flanks. Arsenal doesn’t have the best defence and it will be looking to attack. That should provide some counterattacking opportunities to put them away.
I prefer retaining the ball and attacking to killing the tie with 90 minutes of defending. Bayern should command and control, not allowing its opponents to boss them around.
A prediction? I would be very happy with a 2:0 win, although I’m still afraid of complacency.
Possible lineup
FC Bayern (4-2-3-1)
Neuer
Rafinha, Javi, Dante, Alaba
Lahm, Schweinsteiger
Robben, Thiago, Ribéry
Mandzukic
Game details
Matchday: Round of 16, second leg
Time: Tuesday 11 March, 20:45 CET
Location: Allianz Arena, München
TV listings
Referee: Svein Oddvar Moen (Norway)