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Can Bayern repeat the treble? This question is the most frequent one I received in the past few months. Having often said “I’d be happy with a double”, I finally take the bull by the horns to provide you with a straight, but structured answer.

The situation

Right off the bat, let’s take a look at the context of a possible double treble run. Each title comes with its own dynamics.

Bayern surfs on a seven-point lead over Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga, galloping 11 points ahead of Borussia Mönchengladbach and a stunning 12 points ahead of Borussia Dortmund. Dark horse VfL Wolfsburg is two points further.

At this point, winning the Bundesliga means resisting an eventual surge by Leverkusen. Not stumbling, not dropping points is the obvious challenge ahead of us.

The beginning of the second half will be a bit rough in that regard with a first fixture against Borussia Mönchengladbach, one of the rare teams that can put Bayern in hot water. It is closely followed by a rescheduled autumn fixture with VfB Stuttgart and an always-unpleasant matchup with Eintracht Frankfurt. Three games in 10 days means having to tap in the squad to make sure that early fatigue won’t lead to fumbling.

An early test is the best way to coin it. If FCB holds on to all its points by 2 February, it will be virtually impossible to take them down.

The Champions League will be a more difficult task in a very busy mid-February. First off, we face Arsenal, arguably the best team in England. Arsene Wenger pulled off the coup of the year by acquiring Mesut Özil, contributing to the rejuvenation of his side along with Aaron Ramsey’s rebirth.

The DFB Pokal resumes shortly after with a fight against Hamburger SV. A manageable challenge. The tougher sides will be down the road with Dortmund, Wolfsburg and Leverkusen still in the running for that trophy.

The improvements

Die Roten have remained the best team in football despite dealing with a depleted squad. The injuryfest featured 10 players who can start any game, visiting Dr. Müller-Wolfahrt’s clinic, some spending their time in rehab centres.

Many of them have already returned. Two centerpieces, Bastian Schweinsteiger and Arjen Robben, will be ready for action shortly. If no further injuries hit the team, only Holger Badstuber’s case will be difficult to deal with. Bayern’s full depth should be restored.

Actually, the talent pool now is deeper, aside from the defensive midfield. The midfield is the strongest and most resourceful in the world, being able to take on any opponent without fear. Do not neglect that point. Games are won and lost in the midfield, both by retaining the ball and preventing counterattacks. Deprived of several key players since his arrival, Pep Guardiola never really deployed the dynamic formation he wanted.

The hardest competition to win being the Champions League, I could spend hours talking about it. Nobody won it two years in a row, making it the most elusive trophy in sports. Ask FC Barcelona, which pull it off despite dominating football for four years.

Pep Guardiola however is obsessed with the Champions League. Almost as much as he is obsessed with details and with refining the team’s tactics every week. Winning on club football’s biggest stage will remain a point of comparison with Jupp Heynckes. You can be sure that the boys will be well prepared for those games, no matter who is the opponent.

One more point before my answer. If you follow football closely and FC Bayern closely, you are aware that nobody can beat the current edition when it is firing on all cylinders.

Remember the meltdown against Chelsea in 2012, the defeat against Arsenal in the CL, the treble run and last December’s defeat against Manchester City. They have one thing in common: it is what FCB does that determines the result of a game, not the opponent’s gameplay. It may sound incredibly arrogant, but it is true.

Can Bayern repeat the treble?

Yes they can.

Don’t take the champagne bottle out of the fridge yet. Just because the team can win a second treble does not mean that they will. The nuance is very important.

What can go wrong

What I said a moment ago brings back some horrible memories and some less painful ones: while FCB can beat anyone, it can also beat itself.

If fear brought it down on 25 May 2012, complacency has become the boys’ biggest enemy this term. Playing poorly with a lead led the Bavarians to defeats against Arsenal and Manchester City last year. The same approach made them sleepwalk through wins against CSKA Moskva, Hertha Berlin, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim and Eintracht Braunschweig in the first half. Each of those wins left a strange taste in the critical fan’s mouth. That’s when you have in mind the big picture – winning championships. How you win is as important as winning.

A few fans will shudder at the following thought, but I have to bring it to the table. Tactical choices and defensive issues have plagued Bayern in the first half. Beyond selection problems, it has been Pep Guardiola’s fault.

With almost all players at his disposal, will Pep Guardiola go for a 4-1-4-1/3-4-3 formation although it makes the team vulnerable at times? Will he keep playing guys like Javi Martinez out of position? Will he redefine the system for the sake of being unpredictable, hoping to make a moving target out of his squad? Will he keep saying that he has only one defensive midfielder when Basti returns, even though no. 31 reads plays like nobody else does at DM?

Overreacting fans have made a big deal out of the 0:3 loss against Salzburg on Saturday’s friendly game, but one lesson could be learned from it. Playing Javi Martinez at right-back in a flavourless 3-2-4-1 surely will remain a one-time experiment, but it is consistent with Pep’s trial and error method. The coach has shifted players around the pitch, as you can shift players in FIFA 14. What’s annoying is that human beings don’t react as well as their video game counterparts. Remember how uncomfortable Javi and Mario Mandzukic have been when destabilized.

Mind games?

We have even heard an interesting viewpoint after the Salzburg defeat on Saturday: Bayern would be experimenting and losing a game on purpose to keep people guessing.

Such plans would be scary, although attractive. Being Canadian, I am familiar with North American examples of coaching that can bring a team to its knees before turning it into a champion.

First example: Scotty Bowman coaching the Detroit Red Wings in ice hockey in the 1990s. One season, he played his terrible mind games, losing a number of matches in the process. But they came out mentally stronger and ultimately as champions.

In the NBA, the L.A. Lakers were also manipulated by coach Phil Jackson in 2001. He ended the infighting with a mix of media declarations, threats to trade his superstar Kobe Bryant and motivation tactics. And won silverware.

While Pep was hard-nosed enough to tackle diva Zlatan Ibrahimovic and other stars at Barcelona and to tell a Bayern “mole” that he wouldn’t play him again, I am not sure that voluntary troublemaking is a part of his plan.

Tougher opponents

Back to the Champions League. FCB will eventually have to face hardened contenders if it goes past Arsenal in the Round of 16.

Real Madrid is an entirely different proposition with combinations that can feature guys like Luka Modric, Gareth Bale or Isco, in addition to the usual Ronaldo. FC Barcelona has learned lessons from its 7UP disaster against the Reds, adding a more vertical approach and changes of pace to their game.

The opposition will be stiffer this time around.

So, can Bayern win the double treble? Yes. Absolutely, if they are focused, optimized by their coach and hungry for a fight. Nobody is good enough to beat them in such conditions. Whether they will be in place is the question.