How bookmakers see the odds below Bayern

After the 5:1 clobbering over Schalke 04, Bayern supporters are gleefully looking forward to celebrating back-to-back Bundesliga titles, along with gearing up for another run at the treble.  Although watching Bayern dominate every week is a thrill, the league title being essentially settled by the start of March does take away some of the drama. People who look at the odds from bookmakers are still enjoying some of it.

All of the standard disclaimers apply.  Do NOT gamble if it’s illegal where you live or work, do NOT gamble more than you can afford to lose, and definitely do NOT gamble if you’ve been drinking or are otherwise not in the right frame of mind.  And even if you aren’t a gambler, examining the lines gives us some insight into what other supporters are expecting.

Top goal scorer

Unlike the league title, this one is hotly contested.  Lewandowki currently leads the race with 15 goals, with Mandzukic and Adrian Ramos right behind him on 14, Aubameyang at 13, then a raft of guys on 11 or 12 goals.  With 11 matches left, there’s plenty of time for movement.  Here are 2 bets I’d consider taking.

- Pierre-Michel Lasogga – 11 goals currently, 35-to-1 odds

Lasogga has been pretty much the lone bright spot in an otherwise ugly HSV campaign.  They’re flirting with relegation and leaving their fans frustrated, but the Hamburglars have a fairly easy schedule coming up: home against Eintracht Frankfurt, home against FCN, at struggling VfB Stuttgart, and home against Freiburg are their next 4.  Lasogga has a good nose for the goal and gets decent service from van der Vaart, so it’s not unthinkable that he could be in contention if Lewandowski stumbles.  At 35-1 odds, a possible big pay-off.

- Arjen Robben 10 goals currently, 17-to-1 odds

Weird that he has shorter odds from Bwin than Lasogga, with one fewer goal to his record, but Robben has a longer track record of scoring big goals. He’s been looking lively for Bayern recently, topping it off with a blistering hat trick yesterday.  Obviously a wing isn’t as good a bet to win a scoring tile as a striker.  But you could see Mandzukic being rotated in and out as Bayern tries to keep him fresh for Champions League play – if Robben stays healthy and on the pitch, he could be the focal point of the Bayern offense, and have an outside shot to pick up 8 or 9 more goals in last 11 matches.  With a minor slump from ‘Dowski and Ramos, this could be worth a long-shot gamble.

Highest finish without Bayern

This is basically the “second place finish” bet, except they call it “Bundesliga w/o Bayern” because we haven’t technically clinched the league yet.  Anyway, as you’d expect, Dortmund are the non-Bayern favorites, followed by Leverkusen and then a few other low-percentage bets.  A look at some of the candidates:

- Dortmund – 45 points currently, 5-to-18 odds

Although it’s been a somewhat disappointing season, BVB are still the most explosive and versatile club in the Bundesliga outside of Bayern.  Aside from a hiccup against HSV, they’re undefeated in the new year, and Mats Hummels is back and looking healthy.  The only problem is the odds – you bet 18 bucks to win 5, so it’s almost not worth the trouble.

- Leverkusen – 43 points currently, 4-to-1 odds

Kind of annoying team to support, but this is a logical bet to make.  They give you a decent chance to win the bet (especially because they soon won’t have to worry about Champions League play to crowd their schedule) but 4-to-1 odds are still a good pay-off.  The current 3-match losing streak is not encouraging, but their easy closing schedule – 5 of their last 7 are against teams currently in the bottom half – makes it an acceptable risk.

- Schalke – 41 points currently, 8-to-1 odds

So, yeah, I was wrong about their chances against Real Madrid.  Given their last two results, it’s probably a good idea to stay away from these guys for a while.

- VfL Wolfsburg – 39 points currently, 17-to-1 odds

These guys have had some impressive moments this season, and they have 4 players who can threaten the goal, so theoretically they can give anyone a scare.  And the 17-to-1 odds are tempting.  But given their nasty loss to TSG Hoffenheim yesterday, and the upcoming visit from Die Roten, it’s hard to see them getting into the #2 spot without some crazy slumps from teams above them.

Honestly, I don’t like any of these.  Might be a good idea to stay clear of the “Highest finish without Bayern” category.

Bottom two finish

The bet pays off if your team finishes in either of the lowest 2 spots in the Bundesliga (the automatic-relegation spots), regardless of which one it is.  As most observers have noted, TSV Eintracht Braunschweig is almost a sure thing – which explains why there giving only 1-to-4 odds.  But a couple others that could possibly pay off a decent return:

VfB Stuttgart – 19 points currently, 3-to-1 odds

Seems like a no-brainer, right?  They’ve lost 8 in a row, dating back to mid-December, and 10 of their past 11.  They’ve also given up multiple goals in every match dating back to November 10.  As of right now, they’re only outside the bottom 2 on goal difference, so unless something changes, this should be a tempting bet.

Werder Bremen – 25 points currently, 7-to-1 odds

If you found this weekend’s win over HSV convincing, then this might not be for you … but it’s worth noting that this was their first win in the spring semester.  Their goal differential (-20) is actually the third-worst in the league.  And their tough closing schedule (Bayern, Hertha, Leverkusen) could leave them in trouble if they’re not well clear of the bottom two before that point.  Not saying it’s sure to happen, but at 7-to-1, could be a ride.

Finally, just to branch out a bit …

German-centric Champions League

Some random offerings related to the CL:

- German team to win the CL – 5-to-4 odds

Not quite tempting enough, considering only Bayern and Dortmund have a realistic chance, and considering you could have had 15-to-4 odds on the same bet before the season started.

- Bayern vs. Chelsea meet in the CL Final – 16-to-1 odds

That’s more like it.  Chelsea are not awesome, but they’re better than they were when they won the competition two years ago.  They have more speed now and more versatility.  And, of course, FC Bayern are competition favorites and plowing through everyone.  Basically, you’re betting on Real Madrid, Barca and PSG stumbling over the next couple rounds.

- Borussia Dortmund to reach CL Final – 5-to-1 odds

They already practically have one foot in the quarterfinal, so you’re basically banking on them to get past the subsequent 2 stages.  By no means a sure thing, but if they can avoid the toughest matchups, they still have an explosive offense and a great home-field advantage.  I don’t know, couldn’t you see them having a campaign just like last year’s?

- Bayern vs. Arsenal, second leg to finish in draw – 9-to-2 odds

Bayern are clearly the superior side, but with Müller on the shelf and with Die Roten needing only a 1-goal loss or better, this feels like it could easily end in a 1-1 draw with Bayern running out the clock.  Again, not a great chance, but at 9-to-2 you can pick up a good return.

So there you have it.  Again, don’t run out and start blowing on your money. But if you have some disposable income and you live in a place where gambling is legal, there are surely some propositions above that can tempt you.  If nothing else, pick your favorite non-Bayern team and bet on them to finish top two.  Below FC Bayern, we’re still looking at a lot of unpredictability over these last 11 matches.  Thanks for reading.