Bayern Real Madrid preview, Pep’s decisive battle
When FC Bayern hosts Real Madrid on Tuesday, it will be the biggest game of the season, without a doubt. It will be a test for Pep Guardiola’s resolve to win at any cost.
As it usually happens, we forego the classic preview in the second leg of a Champions League tie, focusing on what should be done to win. There isn’t a big change to notice at Real anyway. Left-back Marcelo has successfully returned, although Coentrao’s performance against FCB should make him a natural choice for the return leg.
What are the scenarios after having lost 0:1 in Madrid, without an away goal?
1:0 win: we go to penalties
1:1 tie: we lose 1:2 on aggregate
2:1 win: we lose 2:2 on away goals
3:1 win: we go through, 3:2 on aggregate
2:0 win or more: we go through, 2:1 or more on aggregate
I talked about Pep’s resolve to win at all costs. In order to beat Real Madrid, he has to push back his plan to implement a Barcelona-style game, which failed in recent weeks. Pep has to show that his coaching style is not ideological, but practical. And no, we’re not asking him to pull off a Mourinho, who will even bore a crowd that paid expensive Premier League tickets to win 1:0.
We are asking Pep to look in the mirror and then make comparisons. When his team played a patient, tiki-taka-like passing game, it succeeded against weaker sides. It also beat several teams that were well prepared but that ran out of gas. This plan has faltered in the last couple of months. The opposition figured that the only way to beat Bayern was to pull everyone back to defend. It has worked.
On the other hand, when Pep and his players felt threatened (Manchester United, second leg) or felt they needed to adjust the game plan (Werder Bremen) to win games, they succeeded.
What adjustments? Two things.
Direct attacking
If the 5:2 win against Bremen showed anything, it is how natural it is for Bayern to go for penetrating passes and crosses towards the area. When they get going, with their technical ability and chemistry, nobody can stop them except perhaps Chelsea.
The right lineup
The Werder Bremen game showed another thing: playing Javi Martinez alongside Bastian Schweinsteiger in central midfield is not just an option. It is mandatory. Javi has a big impact on the defensive aspect of the game. He harrasses ball carriers, giving everyone else a breather and making them raise their game. It also allows Philipp Lahm to play at right-back, where he makes the defence more solid by containing world-class players like Cristiano Ronaldo, and adds punch to the attack. There is no way Rafinha can do that against the biggest clubs in the world. At least not today.
Then, who should play at striker? Claudio Pizarro is on a run. His presence everywhere on the pitch made the passing game more lethal and his finishing has been almost perfect. Mario Mandzukic is our first-choice striker with a dangerous aerial game, but his form has dipped a little in the last few weeks. For that reason, we feel that Pizza may be the right option at the moment in a must-win game.
Finally, Franck Ribéry has regained form and motivation against Bremen. We will not make a case for dropping him temporarily, as we would have done without his excellent performance on Saturday.
What lineup do we recommend, then?
FC Bayern (4-2-3-1)
Neuer
Lahm, Boateng, Dante, Alaba
Javi, Schweinsteiger
Robben, Müller, Ribéry
Pizarro
Injuries: Shaqiri, Starke
The above lineup makes Götze the first man to come in the game if things go wrong.
It may be hard for Pep to swallow that the new tactics he implemented this season are not working yet. But if he is serious about defending the Champions League, he will make the choices he has to make. And push a part of his plan forward to next season. FCB’s players are still better at playing “Heynckes football” than tiki taka. A realistic coach has to concede it for now.
If he does, we’ll beat Madrid and go to the final. For once, I’m confident and ready to predict victory.
Game details
Matchday: Champions League semi-final, second leg
Time: 29 April, 20:45 CET
Location: Allianz Arena, München
TV listings
On two yellow cards: Schweinsteiger, Mandzukic, Ramos, Illarramendi, Alonso
Referee: Pedro Proenca