Wolfsburg – Bayern tactical preview: hitting the soft belly

Wolfsburg – Bayern tactical preview: the Wolves have an excellent football team with a dangerous and versatile playmaker, but also a soft belly. How to stop them?

Wolfsburg, strong in most departments

Possible lineup

It may take one more year before we consider the Wolves as genuine title contenders again, as my colleague Scott has argued in his feature about the green men. At the moment, being an excellent football team seems to suit them well.

Dieter Hecking fields a wide, speedy and wing-heavy 4-2-3-1 formation that counts on Kevin de Bruyne to ensure distribution, assisting and even scoring some of the goals. The Belgian playmaker has racked up 10 assists so far this season in the league. His runs are quick and unpredictable in the opposition half. He attracts defenders and delivers killer passes to his wingers… or shots on goal. He can cut in at any time and go for goal.

With numerous talents such as de Bruyne, Ivan Perisic, Naldo, Vierinha and Ivica Olic, as well as support from left-back Ricardo Rodriguez, Wolfsburg has a strong passing game. It controls possession 55% of the time with a 79% passing rate and 16 shots per game on average. With decent discipline (18 yellow cards), it is no wonder why such a flowing style of play means only 17 goals conceded.

Wolfsburg can count on deadly efficiency in the penalty area, central defender Naldo often rising to meet the ball in the air. Mark him closely or he will put the ball in. Sometimes twice!

However, the club depends on set pieces, their 11 goals from dead ball situations translating into a third of their tally in the Bundesliga. They also depend on the reflexes of Ivica Olic, who has scored some “hockey goals” by deflecting the ball on straight shots at the keeper.

What interests me the most, however, is that soft belly in the center. In many games, I noticed how Wolfsburg left too much space for buildups in the middle, past the center of the pitch. Their holding midfield is a little weak against the dribble. As good as Luiz Gustavo is to win the ball, he has lost it too frequently, sometimes because he had no support to build up an attack.

As a result, Wolfsburg has conceded several goals due to lack of strength in a crucial area of the pitch.

On that last play, Goose lost the ball. Nobody marked the bees or put any pressure on Immobile, who could shoot or pass to an open Aubameyang. This led to another goal.

Bayern, striking decisively

Possible lineup

It only is obvious that Wolfsburg is not likely to enjoy 55% possession against a highly superior Bayern team on Friday. Natürlich.

On the other hand, Hecking probably knows that stacking everyone in the penalty area means only playing for a draw or a narrow loss. He would be smart to send his players forward when they have a chance to create something. Wolfsburg has the skills to do this, as long as the timing is right. Three points depend on it in a title race that will otherwise be lost.

If you are familiar with Bayern tactics, you guessed it. Its trademark counterpressing could be a key to this game. Swarm the Wolves and try to steal the ball quickly as soon as they try launching a new attack and you could bite them in the you-know-what. Their holding midfield has a long reaction time in such situation, which is promising for the Reds.

Pep Guardiola loves to outnumber the opposition at the beginning of its own half, shifting the ball to another area quickly to open space. That is great. If it does not work, there is however no reason to get nervous. If you contain Wolfsburg’s counter before it goes too far, you can hit that soft belly in the middle by making a decisive move before the hosts can regroup around the penalty area.

Matchday: 18

Location: Volkswagen-Arena, Wolfsburg

Time: 30 January, 20:30 CET

Referee: Tobias Weiz