Što penal daje xG 1.00? Evo nakon njega je xG skočio na 1.06 (a nema smisla jer vjerojatnost sigurno nije 1.00). Što se tiče ove tvoje opservacije - posljednjih dana kad sam gledao neke rezultate (rezultati.com) uz koje stoji xG metrika zapazio sam baš suprotno - viđao sam dosta utakmica gdje ekipa koja je imala manje udaraca u okvir gola ima veći xG što bi pak išlo kontra ovog tvojeg zaključka.

Evo, brzo googlanje daje sljedeći rezultat - "As all penalty kicks share the same characteristics, they are assigned a static value of 0.76 xG by the large majority of models, reflective of the historical conversion rate of penalties. The 2022 update of the StatsBomb xG model modifies this static value to 0.78 xG. Goals scored and xG generated from penalties are often removed from player and team totals when analysing performance."

"Each xG model has its own characteristics, but these are the main factors that have traditionally been fed into the large majority of Expected Goals models: distance to goal, angle to goal, body part with which the shot was taken, and type of assist or previous action (throughball, cross, set-piece, dribble, etc…). Based on historical information of shots with similar characteristics, the xG model then attributes a value between 0 and 1 to each shot that expresses the probability of it producing a goal."

Iako mi iz ovoga nije uopće jasno razmatraju li se u obzir situacije koje nisu rezultirale samim udarcem na gol, a potencijalno su jako opasne?