Malo igre sa zdrijebon za SP.
Given the results from yesterday, we can now say that there are only two different possible situations remaining as it relates to seeded teams, and four different lists of the final 32. Given that the teams in Pots 2 through 4 are assigned geographically and FIFA looks to keep as much diversity as possible, we can map out the possible draws. UEFA's at large teams will always demand at least one full pot.
Note that the only line that is locked in horizontally is Brazil in Group A. Everything else is subject to the draw itself, and I've kept the CONMEBOL seeds together at the top of the list and the UEFA seeds together at the bottom of the list for simplicity's sake.
Scenario #1: Uruguay beats Jordan, Mexico beats New Zealand. Here, we can assume that FIFA will combine AFC and CONCACAF into one pot, since it's 4+4. CAF plus the "remainder" teams make up Pot 4. Uruguay takes the final seeded spot from the Netherlands, which leaves a 13th UEFA "remainder" team who can be neither seeded nor in the UEFA-only pot.
| Pot 1 (Seeds) | Pot 2 (UEFA) | Pot 3 (AFC + CONCACAF) | Pot 4 (CAF + others) |
| Brazil |
Netherlands |
Japan |
UEFA 13 |
| Argentina |
Italy |
Australia |
CAF 1 |
| Colombia |
England |
South Korea |
CAF 2 |
| Uruguay |
Russia |
Iran |
CAF 3 |
| Spain |
Bosnia & Herz |
USA |
CAF 4 |
| Germany |
UEFA 10 |
Costa Rica |
CAF 5 |
| Switzerland |
UEFA 11 |
Honduras |
Chile |
| Belgium |
UEFA 12 |
Mexico |
Ecuador |
Brazil is locked into Group A. UEFA #13 can only be drawn into Groups with CONMEBOL seeded teams, while Chile and Ecuador in this case can only be drawn into Groups with UEFA seeded teams.
Scenario #2: Uruguay beats Jordan, NZ beats Mexico. Since CONCACAF only takes three spots here and CAF takes five, it’s most likely that FIFA will put them together into Pot #3. Uruguay remains seeded and Pot #4 looks more varied than before. It is technically possible that FIFA creates a pot of CAF + Chile + Ecuador + NZ, moving UEFA #13 to Pot #3, but FIFA is more likely to put the UEFA, CONMEBOL, and NZ “remainders” together so that they don’t have to do that much re-shuffling as teams are announced at the draw.
| Pot 1 (Seeds) | Pot 2 (UEFA) | Pot 3 (CAF + CONCACAF) | Pot 4 (AFC + others) |
| Brazil |
Netherlands |
CAF 1 |
UEFA 13 |
| Argentina |
Italy |
CAF 2 |
Japan |
| Colombia |
England |
CAF 3 |
Australia |
| Uruguay |
Russia |
CAF 4 |
South Korea |
| Spain |
Bosnia & Herz |
CAF 5 |
Iran |
| Germany |
UEFA 10 |
USA |
New Zealand |
| Switzerland |
UEFA 11 |
Costa Rica |
Chile |
| Belgium |
UEFA 12 |
Honduras |
Ecuador |
Again, Brazil is locked into Group A. UEFA #13 can only be drawn into Groups with CONMEBOL seeded teams, and Chile and Ecuador can only be drawn into Groups with UEFA seeded teams.
Scenario #3: Jordan beats Uruguay, Mexico beats NZ. FIFA would prefer the fact that a Jordan upset moves Netherlands to the seeded line, since it gets rid of the 13th UEFA team being stuck in its own pot. However, AFC now has five teams instead of four, and there’s no way to equally slice five-team CAF, five-team AFC and four-team CONCACAF into their own pots. So CONCACAF moves its fourth team, which I'll assume to be Mexico, on to the old UEFA #13 space, which is just as ugly as the old UEFA #13 slot was.
| Pot 1 (Seeds) | Pot 2 (UEFA) | Pot 3 (AFC + CONCACAF except MEX) | Pot 4 (CAF + MEX + CONMEBOL) |
| Brazil |
Italy |
Japan |
Mexico |
| Argentina |
England |
Australia |
CAF 1 |
| Colombia |
Russia |
South Korea |
CAF 2 |
| Netherlands |
Bosnia & Herz |
Iran |
CAF 3 |
| Spain |
UEFA 10 |
Jordan |
CAF 4 |
| Germany |
UEFA 11 |
USA |
CAF 5 |
| Switzerland |
UEFA 12 |
Costa Rica |
Chile |
| Belgium |
UEFA 13 |
Honduras |
Ecuador |
Brazil remains locked into Group A always. Mexico cannot be drawn into a group that already has a CONCACAF team assigned, and Chile and Ecuador can only be drawn into Groups with UEFA seeded teams.
Scenario #4: Jordan beats Uruguay, NZ beats Mexico. Back to some normalcy as the UEFA pot has eight teams, and FIFA can place three-team CONCACAF with either AFC or CAF. Since CONCACAF was grouped with AFC last time, I would predict that they put CAF and CONCACAF together this time for diversity.
| Pot 1 (Seeds) | Pot 2 (UEFA) | Pot 3 (CAF + CONCACAF) | Pot 4 (AFC + NZ + CONMEBOL) |
| Brazil |
Italy |
CAF 1 |
Japan |
| Argentina |
England |
CAF 2 |
Australia |
| Colombia |
Russia |
CAF 3 |
South Korea |
| Netherlands |
Bosnia & Herz |
CAF 4 |
Iran |
| Spain |
UEFA 10 |
CAF 5 |
Jordan |
| Germany |
UEFA 11 |
USA |
New Zealand |
| Switzerland |
UEFA 12 |
Costa Rica |
Chile |
| Belgium |
UEFA 13 |
Honduras |
Ecuador |
The only rules here are that Brazil is in Group A, and Chile and Ecuador can only be drawn into Groups with UEFA seeded teams.