2014 NFL Season
Do you ever wonder just how dominant J.J. Watt is? It's easy to tune out when another meaningless round of platitudes and tired cliches gets thrown his way every time he makes a big play. Heck, he makes those big plays so frequently that it's often easy to stop appreciating them. But just how good is he compared to everybody else at his position? It's a difficult question to answer, particularly because of the statistics analysts typically cite for defensive ends.
What if we put it into terms of quarterback? Or running back? Or wide receiver? What kind of record-sheet destroying numbers would he be putting up? We used our grading system at Pro Football Focus to show just how dominant he really is.
Watt vs. other DEs
First, let's take a look at how far out on his own Watt is compared to the rest of his peers. In the following chart, Watt's data point is represented by the red star in the far upper-right region, with everyone else occupying a different territory entirely:
Sam Monson
He holds the best three single-season grades at Pro Football Focus among 3-4 defensive ends. That's including this season, without even projecting his current grade out over 16 games; he is so good that 12 games of his 2014 season is already better than a full 16 games from anybody else.
The average of the next 10 best single-season grades at PFF since we have been grading games in 2007 is +29.8, and during Watt's three-season span of dominance his average is +98.1 (projecting this season's grade over 16 games). His grade is more than three times better than the average of the next 10 guys we have seen.
Even Justin Smith, who was the pacesetter before Watt was on the scene, averaged just +36.4 over the three-season spell in which he led the league in grades, and one of those seasons was good enough to earn him PFF's Defensive Player of the Year award.
PFF grade is a play-by-play account of a player's performance, but even if we want to limit ourselves to some more conventional statistics, Watt's dominance shines through. If you look at combined sacks, hits and hurries the same trend emerges, though less pronounced than the grading. He has been averaging 89 total pressures during his three-year span of dominance. Again, taking the 10 best non-Watt seasons, 3-4 ends have been averaging just 55. If you look at every 3-4 DE to play 400 snaps or more during the PFF era, they have averaged just 25 pressures per season.
Statistics such as sacks and pressures can be something of a product of snaps, however. Simply being on the field more than another player gives you more opportunity to make those big plays, and so Watt might benefit from the fact he rarely comes off the field. While many of the league's 3-4 ends during the past seven years have played between four and eight hundred snaps, Watt is averaging close to 1,000.
PFF has a metric called pass-rushing productivity, which measures pressure recorded on a per-snap basis for pass-rushers giving extra weight to finishing the play with a sack. Unsurprisingly, Watt's PRP is way out ahead of the rest of the league. If you look at the 2013 numbers, he is 142 percent better than the next-best player at his position, and 181 percent better than the 10th.
Watt vs. players at other positions
• So let's start translating those numbers into quarterback play. Five thousand yards was once the all-time benchmark for passers. Dan Marino was the first player to cross that barrier, back in 1984, and it wasn't until 2008 that somebody did it again (Drew Brees). Now the mark has been broken eight times by five different quarterbacks, including at least one player eclipsing it each of the past three seasons.
If we assume that 5,000 yards represents a fair representation of the "best of the best," what would Watt be doing right now in quarterback terms? Based on the level of dominance over his 3-4 defensive end peers, he would be passing for a 7,100-yard season. If we translated it to touchdown passes, he would be throwing more than 70.
• How about running backs? Again, 2,000 yards is the great benchmark for running backs. That barrier has been surpassed just seven times in NFL history. If we assume that as our benchmark, then Watt would be rushing for 2,840 yards in a season.
• No receiver has ever broken 2,000 receiving yards in a season. Calvin Johnson came the closest, with 1,964 in 2012, but 16 players have broken the 1,600-yard mark. If we use that as our benchmark, then Watt's dominance represents a 2,272-yard receiving season, not just crossing into uncharted territory, but smashing right through the barrier and beyond.
A generational talent
Obviously, these are not real-world scenarios and would not hold up to game situations, but the point is to try to quantify just how much better Watt is than everybody else at the moment. We are not just witnessing a great player in action. The league has plenty of great players who just consistently perform a little bit above everybody else. Watt is something else entirely. He is a generational player, perhaps even one of the best of all-time if he maintains this kind of pace.
Watt isn't just a little bit out in front of the chasing pack; he is playing a game entirely by himself, out in the distance and completely rewriting what we believe possible from a player at his position. We are watching Watt do the equivalent of throwing for 7,000 yards or 70 touchdowns in a season, or rushing for 2,800 yards. Let that sink in for a moment, and then go back to watching some more Watt in action.
What if we put it into terms of quarterback? Or running back? Or wide receiver? What kind of record-sheet destroying numbers would he be putting up? We used our grading system at Pro Football Focus to show just how dominant he really is.
Watt vs. other DEs
First, let's take a look at how far out on his own Watt is compared to the rest of his peers. In the following chart, Watt's data point is represented by the red star in the far upper-right region, with everyone else occupying a different territory entirely:
Sam Monson
He holds the best three single-season grades at Pro Football Focus among 3-4 defensive ends. That's including this season, without even projecting his current grade out over 16 games; he is so good that 12 games of his 2014 season is already better than a full 16 games from anybody else.
The average of the next 10 best single-season grades at PFF since we have been grading games in 2007 is +29.8, and during Watt's three-season span of dominance his average is +98.1 (projecting this season's grade over 16 games). His grade is more than three times better than the average of the next 10 guys we have seen.
Even Justin Smith, who was the pacesetter before Watt was on the scene, averaged just +36.4 over the three-season spell in which he led the league in grades, and one of those seasons was good enough to earn him PFF's Defensive Player of the Year award.
PFF grade is a play-by-play account of a player's performance, but even if we want to limit ourselves to some more conventional statistics, Watt's dominance shines through. If you look at combined sacks, hits and hurries the same trend emerges, though less pronounced than the grading. He has been averaging 89 total pressures during his three-year span of dominance. Again, taking the 10 best non-Watt seasons, 3-4 ends have been averaging just 55. If you look at every 3-4 DE to play 400 snaps or more during the PFF era, they have averaged just 25 pressures per season.
Statistics such as sacks and pressures can be something of a product of snaps, however. Simply being on the field more than another player gives you more opportunity to make those big plays, and so Watt might benefit from the fact he rarely comes off the field. While many of the league's 3-4 ends during the past seven years have played between four and eight hundred snaps, Watt is averaging close to 1,000.
PFF has a metric called pass-rushing productivity, which measures pressure recorded on a per-snap basis for pass-rushers giving extra weight to finishing the play with a sack. Unsurprisingly, Watt's PRP is way out ahead of the rest of the league. If you look at the 2013 numbers, he is 142 percent better than the next-best player at his position, and 181 percent better than the 10th.
Watt vs. players at other positions
• So let's start translating those numbers into quarterback play. Five thousand yards was once the all-time benchmark for passers. Dan Marino was the first player to cross that barrier, back in 1984, and it wasn't until 2008 that somebody did it again (Drew Brees). Now the mark has been broken eight times by five different quarterbacks, including at least one player eclipsing it each of the past three seasons.
If we assume that 5,000 yards represents a fair representation of the "best of the best," what would Watt be doing right now in quarterback terms? Based on the level of dominance over his 3-4 defensive end peers, he would be passing for a 7,100-yard season. If we translated it to touchdown passes, he would be throwing more than 70.
• How about running backs? Again, 2,000 yards is the great benchmark for running backs. That barrier has been surpassed just seven times in NFL history. If we assume that as our benchmark, then Watt would be rushing for 2,840 yards in a season.
• No receiver has ever broken 2,000 receiving yards in a season. Calvin Johnson came the closest, with 1,964 in 2012, but 16 players have broken the 1,600-yard mark. If we use that as our benchmark, then Watt's dominance represents a 2,272-yard receiving season, not just crossing into uncharted territory, but smashing right through the barrier and beyond.
A generational talent
Obviously, these are not real-world scenarios and would not hold up to game situations, but the point is to try to quantify just how much better Watt is than everybody else at the moment. We are not just witnessing a great player in action. The league has plenty of great players who just consistently perform a little bit above everybody else. Watt is something else entirely. He is a generational player, perhaps even one of the best of all-time if he maintains this kind of pace.
Watt isn't just a little bit out in front of the chasing pack; he is playing a game entirely by himself, out in the distance and completely rewriting what we believe possible from a player at his position. We are watching Watt do the equivalent of throwing for 7,000 yards or 70 touchdowns in a season, or rushing for 2,800 yards. Let that sink in for a moment, and then go back to watching some more Watt in action.
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Paraolimpijski plamen upaljen u Stoke Mandevilleu
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