The new research comes as most countries missed a deadline to submit emissions-cutting plans for the decade ahead that align with 1.5C.
Containing global warming to 1.5C rather than “well below” 2C – the less ambitious Paris goal – would significantly limit its most catastrophic consequences, the IPCC says.
Last year was the first taste of a 1.5C world, with soaring temperatures unleashing deadly and costly storms, floods and fires.
Reinsurance giant Swiss Re estimated natural disasters caused $310 billion in damage in 2024.
This year, the damage and economic loss from fires in Los Angeles alone could top $250 billion, according to estimates by private meteorological firm AccuWeather.
And the heat shows no sign of abating.
Europe’s Copernicus monitor has said last month was the hottest January on record, surprising climate scientists who had expected cooler La Nina conditions to ease the warm-streak.
In a world that has warmed 1.5C, coral reefs are projected to decline 70 to 90 percent, the IPCC says, while some 14 percent of terrestrial species will face an extinction risk.
Warming between 1.5C and 2C could push Arctic sea ice, methane-laden permafrost, and ice sheets with enough frozen water to lift oceans by a dozen metres beyond points of no return.
