Stefan84 je napisao/la:
zb10. trumpi sada vodi 7 od 7 klucne drzave. bit ce gazenje. cak ce dobit vise nego na anketi.
Vidi cijeli citat
da, ankete ga favoriziraju. vodi svugdje, blago al vodi tu nema dileme.
ja sam osobno generalno pesimistican za Kamalu, al jedna nada mi je ostala a to je Allan Lichtman sa svojih 13 kljuceva. u pitanju je povjesnicar koji je na temelju svoje formule tocno prognozirao ishod u 9 od posljenjih 10 izbora. (promasio je jedino super tijesne izbore 2000 i pobjedu Gorea). a kad se gleda zadnjih 150 godina samo jos mislim dvaput ova formula nije prosla.
sluzbena prognoza mu je Kamala Harris
ovo je njegovih 13 kljuceva
1. Incumbent-party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
2. Nomination contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real annual per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the two previous terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
po njegovoj formuli stranka koja drzi Bijelu Kucu mora imati najmanje osam potvrdnih odgovora da bi dobila izbore. 7 ili manje - gubi izbore. A demokrati tj Harris po njemu ima taman 8 potvrdnih, pada na kljucevima 1, 3, 10, 11 i 12
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House
[uredio ZB10 - 20. listopada 2024. u 10:13]