No. 1 Lakers vs. No. 2 Nuggets
These two teams are remarkably similar: Both feature several quick and
supremely athletic players who can light up the scoreboard. Both ball
clubs like to play up-tempo basketball. Both rely heavily on
contributions from their respective benches. And the defenses of both
teams are significantly overrated.
Why the Lakers should win
Knowing that the Nuggets are armed and dangerous, the Lakers will avoid sleepwalking through ball games. No more 20-point
deficits in the first quarter. No more late lapses of concentration
that will dissipate hard-won double-digit leads. No more questions
about L.A.'s killer instinct.
Denver's defense received unmerited praise for so easily
unsaddling the Mavericks. In truth, however, too many of the Mavs were
slow, predictable and insufficiently athletic — like Erick Dampier,
Jason Kidd and Jason Terry. So Denver's unexpected wing double-teams
plagued the Mavs and created plenty of turnovers and poor shots.
But
the Lakers' overall team speed, well-rehearsed trap-releases and savvy
ball-reversals should trump the Nuggets' overloaded defenses and
produce open shots and layups. Just remember how Phil Jackson's Bulls
sliced up the same kind of defensive tactics employed by George Karl's
Sonics in the 1996 NBA Finals.
Not
that the current Lakers are nearly as good as the Jordanesque Bulls,
but L.A. will certainly have answers for what still is Karl's favorite
defensive tweak.
With Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom, the
Lakers should be able to control their defensive glass and deny the
put-backs and extra shots that Denver managed against Dallas. L.A. will
also apply more pressure on their offensive glass than Denver has seen
so far in the playoffs.
Chris Andersen's shot-menacing
whereabouts will always be on L.A.'s radar. In fact, Andersen's
propensity to track the ball will be used to the Lakers' advantage by
suckering him out of position and then passing the ball to an open big
behind him.
Odom and Gasol can successfully attack Kenyon
Martin's overly-aggressive defense, especially in L.A. Expect K-Mart to
continually be in early foul trouble on the road.
Chauncey
Billups' excellent man-to-man defense shouldn't bother Derek Fisher
since the Lakers' point guards usually get their shots within the
context of the triangle offense and are hardly ever put into iso
situations.
Dahntay Jones will try to pressure Kobe Bryant but
will also be tagged with early fouls. Too bad for Denver that Jones is
their only player who has any chance of making life difficult for Kobe.
(Kobe will utterly destroy Melo's improved but still inadequate
speed-defense!) Indeed, watch Kobe repeatedly get into the paint and
make good things happen for the Lakers.
Kobe's been there, done that and until proven otherwise, remains on a level of excellence that 'Melo has yet to reach.
Gasol and Bynum can both run with Nene, who will nevertheless stubbornly force at least five shots per game.
The Lakers will avoid quick shots and work the triangle for at least 20
seconds whenever they're forced to play half-court basketball. Since
Denver plays defense in the starting blocks, they'll be much too eager
to get out and go for them to hunker down and defend for that long.
Trevor
Ariza's quickness should limit Carmelo Anthony's catches and also
challenge his every dribble. For a different look, Odom's length will
force 'Melo to pull in his game and also to force some shots.
The
Lakers' defensive transition will likely limit the damage Denver can
inflict on the run. Plus, the Lakers will undoubtedly tag the Nuggets'
most proficient perimeter shooters in early offense situations.
Look for L.A.'s defenders to aggressively close out Denver's long-range bombers, to discourage 3-point shots and force them to drive the ball into the bosom of the Lakers' long-armed defense.
The Lakers' defensive scheme is much more coordinated than Denver's.
Overall, the Lakers' most significant advantage is their pressure and playoff experience.
THE LAKERS SHOULD WIN IN 7.
Why the Nuggets could win
'Melo
will be able to post Ariza for profit. When their roles are switched,
pressuring Ariza's handle will create turnovers galore.
On both
ends of the game, Nene can out-trick Bynum and overpower Gasol. On
defense, look for Nene to root Gasol out of his favorite low-post spot
near the left box. Also, Gasol can be effectively two-timed once he
puts the ball on the floor.
Billups is too strong for Fisher to contain — either on the drive or in the low post.
High brush-screens in early offense will free up Denver's prime-time shooters.
The
Nuggets will take full advantage of the Lakers' weak screen-and-roll
defense. Since Fisher's thick body makes it difficult for him to
navigate solid screens, the Nuggets will employ high screen-and-rolls
and screen-and-fades that involve Billups and Anthony.
Doubling
Kobe with a big like Martin will cut down his vision. And if Kobe's
release passes to Gasol can be anticipated, the Lakers' offense will be
totally jammed up.
By banging his defender and then executing a quick reverse-spin, Nene will have a field day against either Gasol or Bynum.
Since
the Lakers' defense is best against isolations, the Nuggets will
emphasize rapid ball- and player-movement and limit their one-on-one
play.
Because Denver's offense is slightly more explosive, they
can run off a dozen points in a heartbeat while Jackson sits on his
hands. In fact, the kinetic dynamism of Denver's offense could force
the Lakers to slow the game down to a pace that really doesn't suit
them.
Denver's bench — J.R. Smith, Anthony Carter and Chris
Andersen — will wreak much more destruction than the likes of Luke
Walton, Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown and Sasha Vujacic.
Indeed, Vujacic's itchy defense is incredibly susceptible to his being back-doored.
And Walton's floor-bound defense can be relentlessly attacked as well.
To
prevent the Lakers from jumping off to a good start, Denver must take
only good shots, make careful passes and play solid defense.
But
here's the main reason why Denver has a legitimate shot at winning the
series: In the past, Kobe has tended to abandon any semblance of
discipline when playing against Denver. Even though they may not be
routinely matched up against each other, Kobe has a history of getting
into a personalized tit-for-tat and shot-for-shot competition with
'Melo. The more points Anthony scores, the more Kobe wants to score and
the more he aborts the delicate timing of the triangle offense.
If
Dahntay Jones' body-up defensive tactics can aggravate Kobe to any
degree, then this history is more likely to be repeated. The same for
wing-doublings and an occasional confrontation by K-Mart's belligerent
defense.
When/if Kobe does go off, he's certainly capable of scoring 40-plus
points and winning a game single-handedly. Far more likely, however, is
the probability of his teammates getting disgusted and losing their
desire to bust their butts on offense and on defense.
On the court as well as off the court, discipline, patience and hard work are the elements that Denver will need to advance.
The
only way they can gain and maintain this necessary focus is to totally
avoid being caught up in the seductive Hollywood hoopla.
THE NUGGETS COULD WIN IN 7.