That's it?
Wait, let me rephrase that.
THAT'S IT????!?!?!?!?!?!?
John McEnroe-like wonder fills me at the reported Dwight Howard trade to the Lakers. You cannot be serious! I keep hoping in vain for David Stern to intervene and void the trade for basketball reasons. Or any other reason.
This
deal makes a mockery of the new collective bargaining agreement's
alleged fairness to small markets; Orlando is selling one of the best
players in the NBA for pennies on the dollar, while the rich only get
richer. (But the tax-paying Lakers can't sign-and-trade Matt Barnes -- that'll show 'em!)
Mark
my words: When we have our next lockout in 2016, this trade will be one
of the flash points. The Lakers have a $99 million payroll, and will go
over the century mark if and when Devin Ebanks
and Barnes re-sign. For the small-market owners, all they can do is
count the luxury tax dollars from L.A. and golf clap over their 53-win
glass ceiling. That's better than losing money, but they're still
hermetically sealed off from a taste of the championship unless they're
either incredibly lucky or incredibly brilliant. (Schedule alert: The
Lakers don't visit the House That Dwight Built And Promptly Vacated
until March 12.)
To review the known details for each team in this complex deal, which is pending a Friday morning trade call:
• The Lakers give up Andrew Bynum and a protected 2017 first-round pick, and receive Howard.
• The Nuggets give up Arron Afflalo, Al Harrington and a protected first-round pick, and receive Andre Iguodala.
• The Sixers give up Iguodala, Nikola Vucevic, Moe Harkless and a protected first-round pick that can be no earlier than 2015, and receive Bynum and Jason Richardson.
•
The Magic give up Howard and Richardson, and receive Afflalo,
Harrington, Vucevic, Harkless and the three protected first-round picks
mentioned above.
Basically, I like this deal for the other three teams ... and hate it for Orlando. Let's break it down for each one:
Orlando Magic
I
don't feel totally comfortable ripping them because I don't know what
competing offers they had, but I have a hard time believing they
couldn't do better than this. Suddenly, overpaying Brook Lopez doesn't sound so bad.
The
Magic didn't generate that much salary-cap savings, but they didn't
really need to. They'll have max cap room heading into the 2013
offseason, and they'll be even further under the cap if they cut
partially guaranteed deals belonging to Harrington and Hedo Turkoglu.
But
let's put it this way: The two players they received as salary ballast
wouldn't have been my first two choices from the three other rosters in
this deal.
Afflalo is a halfway decent scorer who decided he was
"The Man" last season and stopped playing defense. He's a hard-working,
quality player, but he's also owed $31 million over the next four years
and he'll be 27 years old by the start of this coming season.
Harrington
had a nice 2011-12, too, but Denver was wise to sell high. He is a
Fluke Rule player (i.e., his stats can be expected to regress sharply
next season), has a bad knee and is 32 years old. Just what you need to
rebuild.
Together, Afflalo and Harrington make nearly as much as
Howard, and I'd argue that their two contracts have negative value going
forward (although the Magic could cut Harrington after the season and
save half the money since his deal is only 50 percent guaranteed).
Oh,
the Magic got some other things out of it, but it's all flotsam. They
received three first-round picks, but they won't get much immediate help
from those -- Philly's pick won't arrive until 2015 at the earliest,
and the pick from the Lakers won't be available until 2017.
The
Magic also get two recent draft picks in the deal, Harkless and Vucevic,
so they'll argue that they got five first-round picks for Howard. But
they'll likely end up being five low-value firsts at the back end of the
draft. In fact, they're guaranteed to be bad, since our Marc Stein
reports that all three future ones are lottery protected. Of the other
two, Vucevic is a solid backup center but nothing special, and I thought
Harkless was a reach as a first-rounder.
Instead, the only
lottery pick Orlando gets out of this is its own, after what figures to
be a 19-win season in 2012-13 leaves the Magic with a top-five pick.
The amazing part, however, is what Orlando didn't get out of this: No Bynum. No Pau Gasol. Not even an Iguodala. I have a hard time believing Orlando couldn't stick the Lakers with Harrington and Magic forward Glen Davis in return for Gasol, given that the Lakers had no other realistic means of acquiring Howard.
It
appears Orlando wants to rip its roster down to the studs and emulate
the Oklahoma City model -- after all, new general manager Rob Hennigan
came from the Thunder -- and perhaps the Magic can pull it off. Now all
they have to do is select an all-time great and two other All-Stars in
the next three drafts, and they'll be all set to emulate the Thunder.
Los Angeles Lakers
This is going to be so funny next summer when Howard spurns the Lakers to sign with the Hawks.
(Wakes up.)
Holy hell, it's good to be the Lakers. After somehow parlaying a pile of backyard trash into Steve Nash,
they now have converted the very good Andrew Bynum into the absolutely
dominant Dwight Howard. As reported, they somehow didn't have to give up
Gasol or even take back any bad contracts. But I'm sure they're crying a
river over the 2017 first-round pick they had to give up. You'll excuse
the Spurs and Thunder for feeling like they're playing a game that's
rigged against them.
It leaves the Lakers with a bit of a Miami in
2010-11 scenario, in which the pieces don't quite fit and they have to
figure out how to make them mesh. As it was with Miami, having pieces
such as these means it probably doesn't matter.
Process this: Pau Gasol is the fourth
option. The Lakers are running the pick-and-roll with Nash and Howard,
Gasol lifting for the midrange J, and Kobe lurking on the weak side?
Good luck defending that.
There is some risk that Howard will
leave after the season, but it was equally present with Bynum. The new
CBA gives players incentive to test free agency, so flight risk is part
of the equation going forward. But again, when you're the Lakers, flight
risk is much less of a problem than it is for, oh, say, Orlando.
Philadelphia 76ers
I've
been harsh on Philly's front office, but this is a heck of a deal for
the 76ers. Players such as Bynum aren't going to just show up in
Philadelphia, but between having his Bird rights and his growing up in
nearby central Jersey, he's about as minimal a flight risk as they could
hope to get.
Suddenly, the Sixers have a building block in the
middle, and it didn't even cost them that much. Iguodala is a heck of a
player and will be missed, but the other assets they relinquished were
fungible. And even though Richardson is on a bad contract, he isn't
exactly dead weight -- especially with a big man to draw double-teams.
Of course, this makes the preceding events of the summer only look more foolish. Elton Brand would have been great next to Bynum, there's no need for Kwame Brown to play a minute on this roster (not that there was before), and Nick Young and Dorell Wright
are redundant next to Richardson. Philly still has some work to do to
get its roster shipshape for opening day. (Also, Philly: Any time you
want to sign a backup point guard, go right ahead. Really.)
But
as for this trade? There's no way Philly couldn't do this deal. When
you're one of the Other 25 in the league, you have to take chances on
elite players when they come. The Sixers are taking a calculated gamble,
and it should pay off. Their worst-case scenario is they get one year
of Bynum and drop Iguodala's contract, which isn't necessarily a bad
thing on its own.
Denver Nuggets
I love this deal for the Nuggets. Loveitloveitloveit. Iguodala is a hellacious wing stopper, the perfect complement for Danilo Gallinari,
and his transition play will only be more terrifying surrounded by all
that speed in Denver. The Nuggets are selling high on two players
(Afflalo and Harrington) who might have peaked last season (especially
Harrington) and move themselves a bit closer to making their no-stars
model a viable one for getting beyond the first round of the playoffs.
The
only little fly in the ointment is that they helped the Lakers get
Howard. Um, that's gonna be a problem. But Denver got better, too, and
did so while actually improving its cap position, since Iguodala has
only two years left on his deal. The Nuggets wriggle out of about $23
million in future money, or $16 million if you subtract the
nonguaranteed part of Harrington's deal, and put themselves in position
to be a cap team in 2014 if this doesn't work.
As an aside, it
also appears the Nuggets have become masters of what we'll call the
"delayed sign-and-trade." After mild overpays of both Nene
and Afflalo last summer, done to keep each from departing without
compensation, Denver quickly moved them along before the deals came back
to bite it. The race between Wilson Chandler and JaVale McGee to be the next one should be entertaining.
In
the meantime, a Denver club that was 19th in defensive efficiency
likely will make a sharp jump with Iggy in tow. And as a side benefit,
the Nuggets create some space on a roster that was getting dangerously
overcrowded.